Multivariate flood risk analysis at a watershed scale considering climatic factors

Abstract

Based on the constructed SWAT model in the Qinhuai River Basin, the hydrological response of flooding under different scenarios of temperature and rainfall change is analyzed. The Copula function is then used to calculate and analyze the multivariate flood risk. The results show that the flood peaks increase with the increase of precipitation and decrease with the increase of temperature. The hydrological response of light floods to temperature changes is stronger than that of medium and heavy floods. Additionally, the temperature drop and the precipitation increase lead to a higher flood risk. The flood risk of flood peaks is more sensitive to changes in precipitation.