Analyzing Long-Term Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and PM10 Levels in Coastal Urbanization: The Crucial Influence of Policy Interventions

Abstract

With the rapid acceleration of global urbanization, the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the environment and ecosystems has become increasingly prominent, particularly in terms of air quality, which has emerged as a significant issue demanding attention. Focusing on the coastal city of Lianyungang, the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover changes were explored by utilizing land use dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix methods. By integrating a comprehensive historical dataset, multiple linear regression analysis was used to analyze the driving mechanism of land use conversion and to explore the effect of LUCC on the variations in PM10 levels. The results showed an overall decreasing trend in PM10 levels over the 24-year period from 2000 to 2023, with distinct seasonal fluctuations, showing higher concentrations in winter and lower concentrations in summer. The impact of land use on PM10 variations can be categorized into three stages: initial (2000–2006), transitional (2007–2013), and deepening development (2014–2022). Notably, during the third stage, with the involvement of policy interventions and industrial upgrading, a strong negative correlation of −0.97 was identified between urban land expansion and the decrease in PM10 levels. The correlation between LUCC and PM10 levels was insignificant over shorter periods, but the analysis of data from 2000 to 2022 revealed a significant positive correlation of 0.77, emphasizing the importance of adopting a long-term perspective to accurately assess the impact of LUCC on air quality. This research provides valuable insights into the implications of LUCC on air quality during urbanization and establishes a scientific foundation for developing air pollution management strategies in Lianyungang and similar regions.