Early organ dysfunction affects long-term survival in acute pancreatitis patients

Abstract

Background The effect of early organ dysfunction on long-term survival in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients is unknown. Objective The aim of this study was to ascertain whether early organ dysfunction impacts on long-term survival after an episode of AP. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed using survival data sourced from a prospectively maintained database of patients with AP admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh during a 5-year period commencing January 2000. A multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) score of ≥2 during the first week of admission was used to define early organ dysfunction. After accounting for in-hospital deaths, long-term survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier test. The prognostic significance of patient characteristics was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox's proportional hazards methods. Results A total of 694 patients were studied (median follow-up: 8.8 years). Patients with early organ dysfunction (MODS group) were found to have died prematurely [mean survival: 10.0 years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4-10.6 years] in comparison with the non-MODS group (mean survival: 11.6 years, 95% CI 11.2-11.9 years) (log-rank test, P=0.001) after the exclusion of in-hospital deaths. Multivariate analysis confirmed MODS as an independent predictor of long-term survival [hazard ratio (HR): 1.528, 95% CI 1.72-2.176; P=0.019] along with age (HR: 1.062; P<0.001), alcohol-related aetiology (HR: 2.027; P=0.001) and idiopathic aetiology (HR: 1.548; P=0.048). Conclusions Early organ dysfunction in AP is an independent predictor of long-term survival even when in-hospital deaths are accounted for. Negative predictors also include age, and idiopathic and alcohol-related aetiologies. © 2014 International Hepato-Pancreato- Biliary Association.