Spatial patterns and temporal tendency of mortality related to Chagas disease in an endemic area of northeastern Brazil

Abstract

Objective: To analyse spatial patterns and the temporal tendency of mortality related to Chagas disease, in order to identify priority control areas in the state of Sergipe, Northeast Brazil. Methods: We conducted an ecological and time-series study with spatial analysis techniques on deaths from Chagas disease in the state of Sergipe (1996–2016). We used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). The temporal analysis was performed using a statistical technique capable of describing changes in the trend pattern for the period. Thematic maps were elaborated from point and polygonal analyses. Results: There were 247 deaths related to Chagas disease, with a mean of 11.7 deaths/year, most of them male (64%), and aged 50–59 years (21%) and 60–69 years (26%). Two segments with increasing, non-constant and significant trends were identified: 1996–2005 (APC = 21.6%; P = 0.01) and 2005–2016 (APC = 4.4%; P = 0.01), with APPC = 11.8% (P = 0.01). A positive and significant spatial autocorrelation with areas of higher risk of death was found in the southern region of the state. Conclusions: The trend of mortality related to Chagas disease in the state of Sergipe was increasing during the period analysed, with a heterogeneous distribution of cases. A main risk area was identified in the southern region of the state.