The changing patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A tempogeographic analysis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 epidemic

Abstract

Background. Evaluating whether an infectious disease has reached a turning point is important for planning additional intervention efforts. This study aimed to analyze the changing patterns and the tempogeographic features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China, to provide further evidence for real-time responses. Methods. Daily data on COVID-19 cases between 31 December 2019 and 26 February 2020 were collected and analyzed for Hubei and non-Hubei regions in China. Observed trends for new and cumulative cases were analyzed through joinpoint regression analysis. Spatial analysis was applied to show the geographic distribution and changing patterns of the epidemic. Results. By 26 February 2020, 78 630 confirmed COVID-19 cases had been reported in China. In Hubei, an increasing trend (slope = 221) was observed for new cases between 24 January and 7 February 2020, after which a decline commenced (slope = −868). However, as the diagnosis criteria changed, a sudden increase (slope = 5530) was observed on 12 February, which sharply decreased afterward (slope = −4898). In non-Hubei regions, the number of new cases increased from 20 January to 3 February and started to decline afterward (slope = −53). The spatial analysis identified Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Nanchang, Wenzhou, Shanghai, Xinyang, Jining, and Beijing as the hotspots outside of Hubei Province in China. Conclusions. The joinpoint regression analysis indicated that the epidemic might be under control in China, especially for regions outside of Hubei Province. Further improvement in the response strategies based on these new patterns is needed.