ENSO effects on hydropower and climate adaptation strategies in four Colombian case studies

Abstract

Study Region: This study explores three Colombian regions where hydroclimatic fluctuations create significant operational challenges for hydropower systems, particularly those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): the upper and middle Magdalena basins and the Sinú basin. These regions contain hydroelectric facilities that are central to Colombia's electricity supply. Each basin is characterized by diverse climatic regimes, socioeconomic contexts, environmental legislations, and water uses. Study Focus: This study focuses on assessing the effects of ENSO events on electricity variables. It aims to identify differences at the plant level, explore the planning strategies hydropower plants use to prepare for ENSO events, and examine the adaptation strategies they employ in response to climate change. The analysis integrates quantitative hydrological and energy data with qualitative insights from stakeholders in an effort to triangulate the findings. New Hydrological Insights: This study contributes to understanding how plants plan and adapt in an electricity system highly dependent on hydropower generation. Moreover, the findings reveal contrasting effects and responses to ENSO events. The middle Magdalena region is more vulnerable to climatic variability, followed by the Upper Magdalena and Sinú basins. Hydrological variability associated with ENSO events is strategically leveraged by power companies in electricity generation management. Adaptation strategies differ significantly, focusing primarily on operational changes, with limited involvement from local communities. Climate adaptation efforts remain technical, underscoring the need for more integrated and inclusive approaches.