Modelling of urban growth based on a Geographic Information System (GIS) and cellular automata at Sukoharjo Regency in 2032

Abstract

Surakarta is one of the big cities in Central Java and is the centre of the development of the mainstay area of SUBOSUKOWONOSRATEN. The physical development of the city of Surakarta has unwittingly spread to the periphery. The material changes in land use illustrate the expansion of the city of Surakarta and social and economic towards urban areas, called urbanization. Spatially, urban development in the suburbs of Surakarta City tends to the south or, in other words, towards Sukoharjo Regency. In line with the unstoppable pace of urbanization, Sukoharjo Regency must maximize development opportunities. The growth of urban areas can indicate urbanization. Industrial and residential growth can be an indication of urban growth. Urban growth modelling uses landusesim, GIS and Cellular Automata as the basis. Expectations of land use change are for industry to increase by 405 ha and settlements to increase by 2103 ha. The most significant land use change from 2022-2032 is in residential land use with an area of 1714.95 ha, which has changed from 2022 by 9%. Changes in land use for settlements are below the previously predicted expectations. Industrial land use also experienced changes in 2032; it increased by 405 ha or 48% from 2022.