Causal impact of PSBB and new normal in West Java

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries affected by COVID-19. This disease has spread to all provinces of Indonesia, including West Java. West Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia with the most cases of COVID-19 and becomes one of the epicentres, therefore, the regional government has issued a policy to manage the transmission chain. The guidelines implemented by the government, including social distancing and the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB). In addition, the implementation of PSBB is expected to disrupt the transmission chain because it is more strictly with more sanctions. After the spread is expected to decrease, the government, then, introduced a New Normal system, in which activities will gradually return to normal, but with strict health protocols. Furthermore, this study will find out whether PSBB and New Normal have a significant impact on daily new cases in West Java. The causal impact analysis will be conducted in this study to showed that the implementation of the PSBB and New Normal system has a significant impact on the increase of daily new cases in West Java. The results obtained indicate that there are significant changes after the PSBB policy changed to the new normal. If the number of cases continues to increase based on the results of this study, it can be implemented, among others, that the West Java Provincial Government can enforce the PSBB in this region.