Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Abstract

Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The current highly suitable habitats were found in the northeast of Jiangxi, the east of Fujian; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the dominant factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. In the 2070s, the suitable distribution area will move northward and the area of highly suitable habitat will increase. Seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis.