Real time epidemic modeling using Richards model: Application for the Covid-19 outbreak in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic has spread to all provinces in Indonesia within a few months. Coronavirus has entered East Kalimantan province in early March 2020. The number of people confirmed as COVID-19 increased dramatically after March. In this paper, we propose a simple mathematical model to predict coronavirus cases in East Kalimantan province. We applied the Richards growth model to the active case and probable case (PDP case) curves. We used the initial parameter values obtained from China's Jiangsu province. This means that the strategy for handling coronavirus in East Kalimantan province is assumed to be the same as in China's Jiangsu province. We have presented the final prediction for the coronavirus pandemic over a range of periods.