Dynamic theory of losses in wars and conflicts

Abstract

We present a new theory for the dynamic evolution of losses incurred in combat, which is verified using available published data from WW1, WW2 and later conflicts. This new dynamic theory updates and revises the original Lanchester-type proportionality assumptions for exchange rates, and unifies military operational and strategic thinking in warfare with the evolution of human learning as observed in all modern technological systems. The theory is tested using dynamic data from the vast battles of Kursk, Ardennes and the North Atlantic. The loss and exchange rates closely follow the trends for event rates given by the previously established Universal Learning Curve, while indicating differences between the initial attacker and defender. For conflicts from 1865 to 1991, a new correlation has emerged for overall losses as a function of size of force deployed. Lessons learned after WW2 of using the strategy of standoff engagement dramatically reduced losses.