Developing technology introduction strategies based on visualized scenario analysis: Application in energy systems design

Abstract

Management of emerging technologies may play a significant role in the advancement towards sustainable development. While the development of consistent management policies requires inputs from a wide spectrum of specialists and other stakeholders, current platforms for facilitating their participation are insufficient. In this study, we present a framework for a visualized scenario analysis that comprehensively assesses combinations of multiple technologies. This framework (1) helps our understanding of scenario performance and behaviors of technology-introduction, (2) identifies the relationships and trade-offs based on evaluation indices, and (3) allows for visualization of various technology-introduction scenarios accounting for time frame. The applicability of this methodology is demonstrated using case studies that evaluate scenario performances and behaviors when implementing various power generation technologies in the Japanese electricity supply system. Different scenarios (e.g., renewable energy-based power generation, operation choice of nuclear power) are visualized to assist stakeholders with evaluation of the trade-offs.