Classification trees in the assessment of the road–railway accidents mortality

Abstract

A special element of road safety research is accidents at the interface of the road and rail system. Due to their low share in the total number of incidents, they are not a popular subject of analyses but rather an element of collective studies, whereas the specificity of the road–rail accidents requires a separate characteristic, allowing, on the one hand, to categorize these types of incidents, and on the other, to specify the factors that affect them, along with an assessment of the strength of this impact. It is important to include in such analyses all potential predictors, both qualitative and quantitative. Moreover, the literature considers most often a number of accidents while, according to the authors, it does not fully reflect the scale of the danger. A better evaluation would be the victim’s degree of injury. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to assess the likelihood of occurrence of various effects of road–rail accidents in the aspect of selected factors. Due to the ordinal form of the dependent variable, the classification trees method was used. The results obtained not only allow the characterization and assessment of the danger but also constitute guidelines for taking preventive actions.