Dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Indonesia using trend analysis test and spatial visualization

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) caused a public health risk in many developing countries, so understanding their incidence trend is needed to prepare for early warning prevention. The multi-year DHF trend analyses with spatial analysis are necessary but have not been accomplished in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aimed to present the current and future trends of DHF disease incidence in Indonesia during 2007-2022. This study examined the trends using yearly data of DHF for all provinces. The total number of DHF cases (DHF cases), the total death associated with DHF (TDC), case fatality rate (CFR), and infection rate (IR) are utilized. Univariate forecasting model, trend analysis test, and spatial visualization were developed. The results per province showed a declining trend of DHF cases and TDC in Java Island. There was an increasing trend outside Java Island. For the CFR and IR, most provinces had decreasing trend except for Gorontalo, North Kalimantan, and Maluku. Overall, trend analysis showed a continually decreasing trend of DHF, TDC, CFR, and IR that shows the positive results of the eradication program over 16 years. The findings highlighted the high-risk areas and need control strategies for DHF incidences.