Typhoon simulation incorporating effects of sea-surface temperature

Abstract

Large-scale and/or long-span structures, which must be sustained for long service life, are susceptible to strong winds. Their design wind speeds are mostly decided by typhoons in Japan. Global warming typically causing the increase of the sea-surface temperature would affect, probably intensify typhoons approaching Japan. In order to investigate the effects of the increase of the sea-surface temperature on typhoon frequency and intensity, a new typhoon simulation technique was developed incorporating the sea-surface temperature. The new simulation technique predicted future trends due to the increase of the sea-surface temperature that the number of typhoon approaching Japan increased and depression of the central pressure increased. It was also shown that 100-year recurrence wind speeds in 24 regions in Japan increased by 10 - 15% on the average due to future increase of the sea-surface temperature.