Trends in the genesis and landfall locations of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in the current global warming era

Abstract

Trends in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and landfall over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) were analysed to identify global warming and climate change impacts. The historical TC data for the period 1901–2015 available through the cyclone eAtlas from India Meteorological Department were used. The analysis was confined to the 3-month period from October to December when the maximum number of TCs occurs over the BOB. Analysis was conducted for the two 50-yr periods of 1901–1950 and 1961–2010 and the four 30-yr periods of 1921–1950, 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010 to ascertain the differences and tendencies in the genesis and landfall points during the current global warming era since the 1960s and the previous years. The results indicate an increase of TC genesis over the south-east and central BOB and decrease over the south central region. Furthermore, an increased vulnerability of the Bangladesh coastline to TC landfall was detected. In addition, TC systems had decreased in number but increased in intensity. These results confirm the general reports of TC trends over the BOB as of other ocean basins in the post-industrialisation global warming era.