Non-compensatory decision model for incorporating the sustainable development criteria in flood risk management plans

Abstract

It is necessary to incorporate Sustainable Development Goals into the selection of Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs). This paper is assessing the FRMPs by grouped Sustainable Development Criteria (SDC) criteria. The utilized Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) models to evaluate FRMPs were chosen from three groups of compensatory, Semi-non compensatory, and non-compensatory models. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of input data such as SDC’s weights and Criteria’ Weight Assessment (IWA) methods were used to compare the results in different groups of MCDMs, IWAs, and their constructions. The results showed that Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) had reasonable results as IWA method, while Shannon’s Entropy had not satisfied outcomes. The compensatory model was affected by changes in input data, while Semi-noncompensatory and noncompensatory models had more stable results. Based on the SWARA-PROMETHEE model the combination of designing the warning system and employing a flood insurance program was in the first rank, flood peak alleviation by Golestan-I reservoir is in the second rank, designing a warning system was in the third rank, building a diversion canal and levees in the study area were fourth and fifth rank, respectively. Employing a flood insurance program was in the last priority by SWARA-PROMETHEE model. The combination of SWARA-PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) model is recommended for the ranking of FRMPs because of the better incorporating SDC in flood management plan in comparison to other models, and demonstrating better results in IWA sensitivity analysis as well as Criteria’ Weight (IW) uncertainty assessment.