Demographic change and private savings in India

Abstract

India is on the edge of a demographic revolution with a rapidly rising working-age population. For the first time in this study, we investigate the role of the rising working-age population on per capita small savings in post offices and banks net of socio-economic characteristics using state-level panel data compiled from multiple sources for the period 2001–2018. Our comprehensive econometric assessment with multiple robustness checks provides three key findings: (1) per capita private savings is increasing because of India’s growing working-age population; thus, the ‘economic life cycle hypothesis’ is evidentially supported; (2) the demographic factors contribute around one-fourth of the per capita private savings inequality across Indian states; and (3) the demographic window of economic opportunity for India can yield maximum benefits in terms of private savings when accompanied by favourable socio-economic policies on education, health, gender equity, and economic growth.