A probabilistic design of sacrificial cladding for a blast wall using limited statistical information on blast loading

Abstract

A design of sacrificial cladding for a blast wall is considered. Methods of structural reliability analysis and quantitative risk assessment are applied to the design. The basic idea of this design is to apply a probability of failure of cladding components as a criterion of damage to the cladding. This probability is used as an estimate of the proportion of cladding components destroyed by an explosion. The cladding failure probability is estimated by quantifying and propagating uncertainties related to a mechanical model of cladding and elements of the statistical sample containing records of blast loading. It is demonstrated how to estimate the cladding failure probability when the size of this sample is small from the standpoint of classical statistics. The proposed procedure of the cladding failure probability estimation is illustrated by means of a case study. The case study considers a design of cladding for a blast wall to be deployed for a protection of a fuel tank against an explosion of a railroad tank car.