A ordem regional no Oriente Médio 15 anos após os atentados de 11 de Setembro

Abstract

This article will analyse the Middle East regional order fifteen years after the attacks of September eleven 2001, showing the relevance of regional forces for the balance of power in the region. The question to be answered in this article is if the attacks of September eleven have changed significantly the regional order. The goal of the research is to assess the role of regional forces to power relations in the Middle East, and their transformations after the attacks. To do so, will be presented the concepts of power, order, and regional power, as well as a brief description of the changes that have occurred in international relations in the Middle East, since the local independence until the period after September eleven, 2001. To categorize States as traditional middle power, emerging power or regional power, will be used the theoretical perspective created by Nolte (2006), Jordaan (2003) and Huelsz (2009). To evaluate the distribution of power between the main State actors, as well as their hierarchy of power, we will use the concepts of real power, potential power and ideational power, and apply some statistical techniques such as principal components analysis (PCA), to analyze the periods of 1980, 1990, 2001 (year of the attacks), and 2011 (latest data sources consulted). The results demonstrate that the main regional forces that have historically acted in the region are still present, and that the actual regional order is similar to the early 1990 's, with the main transformations have taken place in the ideational domain, due to the increased action of transnational forces.