Uganda's Intra-East African Community Customs Union Trade Performance in Comparison to other Trading Blocs: A Gravity Model Analysis

Abstract

The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda's trade. The empirical question is whether Uganda's trade is getting more integrated in the EAC region or is still dominated by other trading blocs. The augmented gravity model is applied. The panel data are extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 – 2009. Uganda's trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more into the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are also integrated into these regions as well as in the Asian and EU trading blocs. To continue consolidating and deepening the trade gains within the EAC, Uganda should implement the frameworks, protocols and provisions of the treaty and seek industrialization as a priority.