Study on the Evolution and Forecast of Agricultural Raw Material Exports in Emerging Economies in Central and Eastern Europe Using Statistical Methods

Abstract

This study examines the evolution of agricultural raw material exports in seven emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe (Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Croatia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 1995 to 2023 and provides forecasts for 2024–2026 using ARIMA models. The results indicate a general downward trend in the share of agricultural raw material exports within total exports, reflecting ongoing economic modernization and a structural shift toward higher value-added products and industrial sectors. Romania, Poland, and Hungary remain as significant players in the cereals market, while Slovakia and the Czech Republic show the most pronounced transitions toward non-agricultural industries. Croatia, however, follows an atypical trajectory, maintaining a relatively high share of agricultural exports. Statistical tests (Dickey–Fuller) confirm the non-stationarity of the initial series, necessitating differencing for ARIMA modeling. Correlation analyses reveal a synchronized regional dynamic, with strong links among Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria. Forecasts suggest continued decline or stabilization at low levels for most countries: Romania (0.45% in 2026), Poland (0.93%), Slovakia (0.62%), Bulgaria (0.51%), the Czech Republic (0.95%), and Hungary (0.53%), while Croatia is an exception, with a projected moderate increase to 4.19% in 2026. Although the share of raw agricultural exports is decreasing, the findings confirm that agriculture remains a strategic sector for food security and regional trade. The study recommends investments in processing, technological modernization, and export market diversification to strengthen the competitiveness and resilience of the agricultural sector in the context of global economic transformations.