Subseasonal organization of ocean chlorophyll: Prospects for prediction based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Abstract

Analysis of satellite ocean color and rainfall data shows that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) produces systematic and significant variations in ocean surface Chlorophyll (Chl) in a number of regions across the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the northern Indian Ocean, a broad expanse of the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean, and a number of near-coastal areas in the far eastern Pacific Ocean. Potential mechanisms for this modulation are examined with the result that wind-induced vertical entrainment at the base of the ocean mixed layer appears to play an important role. Given evidence that the MJO is predictable with 2-3 week leadtimes, surface Chl may also be predictable at similar lead times with implications for the fishing industry and public health sectors concerned with cholera epidemics. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.