A Disruptive Technology Identification Method for New Power Systems Based on Patent Evolution Analysis

Abstract

Disruptive technologies have been employed in various fields with a strategic priority in several countries as the core driving force of the fourth industrial revolution, significantly impacting the development of new power systems. It is a kernel to effectively identify the future potential of disruptive technologies. To overcome the subjectivity and limitations of existing disruptive technology identification methods, we propose a disruptive technology identification method based on patent evolution analysis. Firstly, the evolution matrix of the patent data is calculated. Afterward, we dig into the characteristics of disruptive technologies to build a more targeted identification index system. Finally, the fields of electric power communication and energy generation are selected as typical cases to build the patent data sets. The future development of the identified technologies, including the identified quantum technologies and controlled fusion, is analyzed. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can identify the key technologies of new power systems accurately and contribute to completing the industrial upgrading and transformation more rapidly.