Spatiotemporal changes in both asset value and GDP associated with seismic exposure in China in the context of rapid economic growth from 1990 to 2010

Abstract

Accurate exposure estimation is essential for seismic risk assessment. Recent rapid urbanization and economic growth in China have led to massive spatiotemporal changes in both the asset value and GDP exposed to seismic hazards. Using available GDP data, the asset value dataset produced by Wu et al (2014a) and spatial disaggregation technology, gridded maps of GDP and asset value are overlaid with the latest seismic map to investigate spatiotemporal changes in economic exposure in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. We found that 15.4% of China's asset value and 14.1% of China's GDP were located in MSHAs in 2010, and the asset value and GDP exposed to MSHAs reached 15.9 trillion CNY and 6.2 trillion CNY, respectively, with average annual rates of increase of 14.4% and 11.3% over the two decades. The evidence of increased exposure provides valuable information regarding whom or what risk managers should give the most attention based on the economic exposure changes in earthquake-prone areas of China. Notably, the North China seismic belt, which is associated with the largest economic exposure to earthquakes and a rapidly increasing rate of economic exposure compared to those in other seismic belts, and the Qinghai-Tibet seismic belt, which has the highest earthquake occurrence, are two seismic belts of interest. A more detailed study is required to determine the relationship between increased economic exposure and earthquake disaster losses combined with hazard level and vulnerability.