Predicting local habitat suitability in changing climate scenarios: Applying species distribution modelling for Diderma hemisphaericum

Abstract

Over the past few decades, myxomycete research in the Philippines has focused mainly on diversity and systematics studies. As an important player in forest ecosystem, cosmopolitan species like Diderma hemisphaericum can serve as an ideal organism to be modelled for species distribution. Hence, this study was conducted where available species occurrence data of D. hemisphaericum in the Philippines and environmental layers for bioclimatic predictors were subjected in the MaxEnt software to give a predictive current distribution and probable distribution of the species under two changing climate scenarios (A2 and B1). The models show wider spread of the species over the influence of two most important bioclimatic variables, namely isothermality and temperature seasonality. Moreover, the models suggested areas where the species could potentially flourish and calls for possible conservation strategies for those areas that are locally facing threat of habitat loss and rapid deforestation caused by growing urbanization. This is the first report of local species distribution modelling for the Philippines and the whole Southeast Asia.