Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Critical Review of Evolving Assessment Approaches

Abstract

The cumulative negative effects of climate change make agriculture increasingly vulnerable, with severe food security challenges, especially for developing nations. A robust research approach and a logical methodical framework can holistically assess the occurrence and intensity of agricultural vulnerability in a bid to strategize mitigation measures. This paper includes an in-depth review of the existing body of literature on agricultural risk and vulnerability, apart from recent studies and metric measurements of vulnerability having an emphasis on agriculture. Unlike the high priority on climate indicators in the past, contemporary research is progressively comprehensive and multidisciplinary where socioeconomic factors are integrated to make the assessment all-encompassing. Though this review paper found six major types of methodologies, the current vulnerability studies are predominantly index-based experiments adapted from the IPCC vulnerability concept. However, there is considerable variation across experiments concerning vulnerability conceptualization, selection of indicators, weight assignment and indexing techniques. Majority of the indexes encapsulate expert-recommended variables under sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Such index-based measurements describe and compare vulnerability over space and time in order to formulate actionable policy measures. Uniform and robust techniques in indicator selection and statistically tenable weight allocation should be pursued in future research. To make the index highly representative and validated, the inadequacy of community perception should be minimized through the integration of PRA techniques within the experimental framework. Emerging threats such as loss of labour productivity in agriculture should be included in the analysis. The components of vulnerability also need to be analysed to comprehend their individual share in overall vulnerability for well-targeted mitigation measures. Constraints of data insufficiency required for vulnerability studies need attention for quality vulnerability research in the future. With such set priorities and focus, future research outcomes in vulnerability evaluation should be more meaningful and policy-focused.