Crisis or opportunity: Impact of Venezuelan migration on Colombian productivity

Abstract

Venezuelan migration to Colombia has mobilized nearly 1.8 million Vene­zuelans and Colombian returnees to Colombia. Using a data panel with fixed effects, we estimate the difference in the contribution to productivity of the migrant and non-migrant population for two periods, 2013-2019 and 2015- 2019, considering educational level, geographic department, and economic sector. In 2015-2019, migrant with a higher level of education contributed more to productivity than the non-migrant population with a low level of education. There is a self-selection bias given that migrants sought to work in departments with the higher levels of productivity. This bias is corrected with an instrumental variable that exploits the regional variation of the migrant networks existing in 2005 and the timing and intensity of the Venezuelan economic crisis. This analysis shows that Venezuelan migration positively affects Colombian labor productivity in the short term and works as an input to develop migratory policies.