50-year wind speed maps for tropical-cyclone-affected regions using best track data

Abstract

Accurate estimation of extreme wind speeds from tropical cyclones is a significant challenge in regions prone to tropical cyclones. This study presents a method to estimate the 50-year return wind speed at heights relevant to wind turbines. The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship data are combined with the Holland parametric model and the Gumbel distribution to assess extreme winds in three tropical-cyclone-affected regions in the Northern Hemisphere. These regions are Taiwan, Japan, and the east coast of the US. To assess the uncertainty in the results from differing input parameters, Monte Carlo simulations are used. The method aligns with previous studies through the spatial representation of wind speeds and maximum 50-year return wind speeds in Taiwan and Japan that can be attributed to the large sample size of data points located in a limited spatial area. The east coast of the US exhibits spatial fragmentation and only partially aligns to the spatial representation of 50-year return wind speeds from previous studies, which, conversely, is due to the smaller sample size and wider spatial region of which they cover. This study shows that combining International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship data with parametric and statistical models provides a practical approach to estimate extreme wind speeds while highlighting the need for an understanding of regional characteristics to ensure reliability of the results.