ESD Ideas: planetary antifragility: a new dimension in the definition of the safe operating space for humanity

Abstract

Combining well-established non-equilibrium thermodynamic principles and a system dynamics approach, we define, for the first time, the concept of planetary antifragility as changes of Fisher information of Earth's entropy production. As a first approximation for entropy production, we propose using shortwave global albedo anomalies and provide a first quantitative example with data for the July months in the Northern Hemisphere from 1982 to 2010. These preliminary results show a net reduction of 47.63% in albedo's Fisher information. This loss of antifragility implies a compounding problem because human perturbations such as climate or land-use changes are increasing, but at the same time, the planet is losing its capacity to respond to them. We discuss the concept of antifragility in the context of safe operating space for humanity and planetary boundaries. We conclude that not only does interaction among state variables of the boundaries matter, but more importantly the perturbation response capacity dimension is also missing. In conclusion we speculate on improving the operational definition for ecosystems.