Comprehensive decision-making considerations in the transition to electrification transportation system in a developing country

Abstract

Introducing suitable alternatives to the existing fossil fuels can provide insightful aspects of the expected benefits. In the energy sector, the transportation system is one of the key contributors to fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas productions. To elaborate on the performance of each introduced alternative, two perspectives are considered; short-term and long-term evaluations. In the short outlook, the PROMETHEE method is used for evaluation. Six scenarios are introduced based on the technical, economic, social, and policy criteria and each scenario benefits from different weights. In this scheme, the impacts of evolutions in the battery applications in the vehicles are investigated. Based on the short-term study, CNG and gasoline are considered the best options for the fuels of vehicles in Iran by taking into consideration the current situation. By viewing the technical and economic criteria, it was concluded that the Li-Ion battery provides better performance in comparison with gasoline in the long run. By 2040, the number of EVs will reach 10% of the overall vehicle production. It is obtained that the benefits of the electrical vehicles’ presence as the alternative to the internal combustion vehicles can provide growing interest in this outlook from 2.02 × 106 US$ in 2025 to 17.55 × 108 US$ in 2040.