CoViD-19 in Italy: a mathematical model to analyze the epidemic containment strategy and the economic impacts

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential costs deriving from the adoption of the CoViD-19 epidemic management strategy. For this purpose, we developed a specific methodology that combines an epidemiological model, known in the literature as "SIR" (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered), and a probabilistic state model, also known as "multi-state". The model thus conceived was then parameterized using the dataset published by the Italian Government through the Civil Protection and the Istituto Superiore di Sanita. We therefore estimated the duration of the disease and the related costs, with reference to the strategy currently under discussion between government institutions and social organizations involved. Given the flexibility of the adopted approach, the tool will also be able to provide useful indications in relation to any alternative strategies that the Government could adopt in the near future, as well as being the starting point of an analysis of the epidemic indirect costs such as losses of GDP fractions.