Confiabilidade nas estimativas do regime do vento fornecidas pelo brams no estado de alagoas: Influência do aninhamento e da resolução horizontal de grades

Abstract

Observational data obtained at two wind towers located at the Alagoas State (Northeast of Brazil - NEB) were used to evaluate the influence of horizontal grid setup on the reliability of wind estimates provided by the numerical weather prediction model BRAMS. Statistical analysis were performed to evaluate the model skill in reproducing the temporal evolution, frequency distribution and the mean daily cycle of the wind observations in both locations. The study was performed for the two typical climate seasons: the rainy (May/2008) and the dry one (November/2008). The results demonstrated that the deviations of wind estimates gets lower if the horizontal grid resolution is increased from 8 km to 2 km. No results improvement occurred when using horizontal grid resolution higher than 2 km. The confiability on wind speed estimates were higher at Girau do Ponciano (GRP), located in the continental area where the sea breeze is less important to the atmospheric dynamic. The results demonstrate that wind data observations play an important role in defining the best configuration and parameterization model to better estimates the availability of wind energy on a specific region, particularly for NEB.