Fire, science and society at the urban-rural interface

Abstract

The drama of urban-rural interface fire is a feature of summer newscasts in south-eastern Australia. Fire-suppression agencies report on their activities and on threats to homes. At another level, scientists grapple with the problems of predicting fire spread, recommending house-construction methods, advocating human-safety measures and anticipating environmental effects. The householder can be largely unaware of a fire threat or have expectations of total protection from suppression agencies. Houses can burn down and fatalities can occur. This paper considers a number of the issues surrounding this 'bushfire problem'. Using examples based on the fire event experienced under extreme weather in Canberra, Australia, in 2003, simple models and calculations are presented for: the fire-awareness of householders; the proportion of 'knowledgeable' householders; the capacity of the brigade suppression system; demands for water from the mains; stay-or-go recommendations; and, house loss in relation to householder occupancy during fire. A set of testable hypotheses is suggested. The general sociopolitical problem is how to meet a rare, extreme, short-term demand for resources that far exceeds normal supply. The conclusion that householders need to be self reliant is apparent. The general scientific problem is one of too many variables and too few data for statistical analysis.