Modeling electricity supply in a small island: A case study in Sebira island, Indonesia

Abstract

Sebira is a small island located at the northernmost of the Thousand Islands, Indonesia. The Electricity supply at the island uses an isolated network system for its territory. This study aims to model a system of electrical energy supply in Sebira Island. We explore literature studies related to the electricity supply system to support our model to be more representative. We then describe the system with a Causal Loop Diagram and a Stock Flow Diagram. The current electricity supply comes from solar power plants 400 kWp and three units diesel power plants with capacities of 125 kVA (2 units) and 250 kVA (1 unit). In this model, we consider the variables of population growth, initial investment, electricity shortages, fuel costs, profits, and margins. Furthermore, we create two scenarios in the simulation, with and without additional wave energy. The results show that in a sufficiently long period, the second scenario (with extra wave energy) is more profitable for the electricity supply in Sebira Island; however, it requires more initial investment than the first scenario.