Research on Spatiotemporal Dynamic and Driving Mechanism of Urban Real Estate Inventory: Evidence from China

Abstract

Real estate inventory dynamics exhibit distinct temporal patterns and spatial heterogeneity, and precise identification of these trends serves as a prerequisite for effective policy formulation. Research on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and influencing factors of real estate inventory holds significant academic and practical value. By employing ESDA, the Boston Matrix, and geographically weighted regression models to analyze 2017–2022 data from 287 Chinese cities, this study reveals a cyclical shift in China’s real estate inventory management—from “destocking” to “restocking”. The underlying drivers have transitioned from policy-led interventions to fundamentals-driven factors, including population dynamics, income levels, and market expectations. China’s real estate inventory and its changes exhibit significant spatiotemporal differentiation and spatial agglomeration patterns, demonstrating a spatial structure characterized by “multiple clustered highlands with peripheral lowlands” led by urban agglomerations. The influencing mechanism of China’s real estate inventory constitutes a complex system shaped by three key dimensions: macro-level drivers, regional differentiation, and structural contradictions. Policymakers should reorient destocking policies from “short-term stimulus” to “long-term coordination”, from “industrial policy” to “spatial policy”, and from addressing market “symptoms” to tackling “root causes”. This study argues that effective destocking policies constitute a systematic engineering challenge, demanding policymakers demonstrate profound analytical depth. They must move beyond simplistic sales metrics and perform multi-dimensional evaluations encompassing economic geography, demographic trends, fiscal systems, and land supply mechanisms. This paradigm shift from “symptom management” to “root cause resolution” and “systemic regulation” is essential for achieving sustainable real estate market development.