Macro perspective research on transportation safety: An empirical analysis of network characteristics and vulnerability

Abstract

The layout of the China Comprehensive Transportation Corridors and Hubs (CCTCH), depicted in the 13th Five Year Plan of Transportation, revolves around transport integration and economic globalization. With the aim of improving the sustainability of the entire national transportation system, this paper studies the sustainability of the CCTCH from the perspective of network characteristics and network invulnerability. The topological properties of the CCTCH were quantitatively analyzed, based on graph theory and complex network theory. The relationship between the node degree, betweenness, socioeconomic factors (i.e., GDP, population, GDP per capita) and hub type was explored using correlation analysis. A vulnerability assessment model was developed to investigate the influence of node disruption on the whole network, as well as specific origin-destination paths, and a simulation analysis was conducted to examine the variations in the network performances faced with different attack scenarios. The results show that, among several factors, the hub type has a strong relationship with the node degree and a moderate correlation with GDP. We conclude that the CCTCH is relatively fragile from the viewpoint of network efficiency, and for the purpose of international transportation from the domestic border hubs to the economically developed cities.