Prediction of the availability of carbon reserves through the probabilistic random walk for the year 2015 in Colombia

Abstract

Background: From a methodology based on probabilistic random walk, apparently random phenomena as epidemic outbreaks have been studied, achieving physic-mathematical predictions with percentages higher than 90%. Objective : to predict the availability of the carbon reservoir for the year 2015 in Colombia through probabilistic random walk. Material and methods: values reported by the DANE between 1994 and 2015 of the availability of carbon reservoirs were taken and analyzed to apply a methodology based on probabilistic random walk and give a predictive value for the year 2015. Results: it was predicted a value of 67,33 for the availability of carbon reservoirs in 2015; a success percentage of 92,24% was achieved with regards to the real value reported by the DANE for the year 2015. Conclusions: the behavior of the availability of the carbon reservoirs in Colombia obeys to a predictable probabilistic behavior based on a methodology grounded in the random walk, being useful for the decision making and public policies.