Data Mining to Identify Factors Associated with University Student Retention

Abstract

Student retention has become a major challenge for higher education institutions due to the influence that academic, socioeconomic, family, and motivational factors exert on students’ academic continuity. In this context, understanding the determinants that explain university persistence is essential for designing effective retention strategies. Based on the analysis of factors related to motivation, commitment, attitude, academic integration, and social and economic conditions, retention patterns were examined in a population of 532 university students, of whom 57.7% showed high retention, 38.2% medium retention, and 4.1% low retention. To identify the factors with the greatest influence on academic continuity, educational data mining techniques and supervised classification models were applied and evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. Tree-based ensemble models showed the most consistent predictive performance, with Random Forest achieving the best results (accuracy = 0.729 ± 0.058; F1-macro = 0.636 ± 0.136). Model interpretability was examined through SHAP analysis, which revealed that transportation conditions (0.249), task completion (0.170), absence of work obligations (0.168), and course completion (0.164) were the most influential predictors in the classification of retention levels. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicated that academic commitment accounts for 41.6% of the predictive impact, followed by motivation (23.5%). These findings demonstrate that student retention is shaped by the interaction of academic, motivational, and contextual factors and provide practical implications for the development of **early warning systems, personalized tutoring programs, psychosocial support initiatives, and financial assistance policies aimed at strengthening university retention.