Predicting the impacts of climate change on Indonesia's five main horticulture commodities

Abstract

Global climate change has an enormous impact on agriculture, including horticultural commodities. Banana, oranges, shallot, chilies, and potatoes are among the main horticulture commodities for Indonesian. This study employed a multimarket model of partial equilibrium analysis to investigate the impact of global and environmental climate change on those Indonesia's five horticulture commodities 2019-2030. The study appraised the impact of climate change by looking at changes in the production and consumption in the national and household level, and net trade at national level. The study revealed that all scenarios show negative impact on national aggregate level of productions and consumptions, however those scenarios can be lower or higher at regional and household levels under climate change compared to a no-climate change scenario in the short and medium term. Import will increase, and all commodities will be as net imported. As an implication, types and characteristics of commodity and regions and households should be strongly considered in research, extension, and development program with improving adaptation and mitigation to climate change. With its unique characteristics, more comprehensive studies for these commodities are recommended. Awareness of the impact of climate change, horticulture subsector needs to be treated in a consistent, comprehensive, and systematic ways.