Applying the general path model to estimation of remaining useful life

Abstract

The ultimate goal of most prognostic systems is accurate prediction of the remaining useful life of individual systems or components based on their use and performance. This class of prognostic algorithms is termed effects-based, or Type III, prognostics. A unit-specific prognostic model, called the General Path Model, involve identifying an appropriate degradation measure to characterize the system's progression to failure. A functional fit of this parameter is then extrapolated to a pre-defined failure threshold to estimate the remaining useful life of the system or component. This paper proposes a specific formulation of the General Path Model with dynamic Bayesian updating as one effects-based prognostic algorithm. The method is illustrated with an application to the prognostics challenge problem posed at PHM '08.