Effect of adopting stress-tolerant maize varieties on yields and food security in Kenya

Abstract

Maize is the staple food for most households in Sub-Saharan Africa, and stress-tolerant maize varieties (STMV) are promoted to mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, the drivers and effects of STMV adoption on maize productivity and food security remain insufficiently understood. This study examines STMV adoption among 540 smallholder farmers in Kenya using Poisson and Probit models within an endogenous switching regression framework. Results indicate that adopters achieved 27.5% higher yields than non-adopters, with potential counterfactual gains of 69.2%. STMV adoption reduced vulnerability to food insecurity by 35.4% and increased the likelihood of food security by 22.3%, suggesting substantial benefits for non-adopters if they adopt the technology. Key drivers of adoption included male-headed households, frequent extension contact, and fertilizer use, while barriers involved high labor requirements, livestock ownership, larger farm size, soil fertility status, and distance to input markets. The findings underscore STMV’s potential to enhance maize productivity and food security, contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals of ‘No Poverty,’ ‘Zero Hunger,’ and ‘Climate Action.’ Policy interventions should focus on overcoming adoption barriers, promoting technology bundles (e.g. seed and fertilizer), and implementing gender-inclusive strategies. Enhancing market access and scaling up adoption among non-adopters could maximize yield and food security gains, particularly in fertile and climate-vulnerable regions. These measures would ensure equitable benefits for marginalized farmers in Kenya and similar contexts, supporting resilient and sustainable maize production systems.