Climate change modelling predicts dramatic changes in the species distribution of Nordic crop wild relatives

Abstract

Introduction. Crop wild relatives (CWR) play an important role in combatting threats to global food security and the adverse effects of climate change on food production. At the same time, climate change is predicted to lead to significant challenges for species survival, including Nordic CWR taxa. Aim. The modelling of future climate scenario effects on Nordic priority CWR taxa was undertaken to set priorities for in situ and ex situ conservation for both species and areas. Methods. We modelled the effect of future climate change on suitable habitats for 84 taxa under two CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP 2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5). The present potential distribution range was compared to the status by year 2100. Results. The results revealed that even modest climate change causes negative effects in many species. There was large variation among the species’ responses to climate change, but over half of the taxa showed a reduction in suitable future habitats under both SSP scenarios. Threatened and mountainous species appear to be more negatively affected than the rest of the priority CWR taxa. Conclusions. We recommend in situ conservation with active management of Nordic CWR, prioritizing ex situ collection for species vulnerable to climate change. In addition, regular monitoring of CWR populations is essential to detect diversity loss and guide management, and a comprehensive Nordic CWR in situ network, integrated with ex situ conservation, is critical for long-term species survival.