Probabilistic finite element-based reliability of corroded pipelines with interacting corrosion cluster defects

Abstract

The random distribution of pitting corrosion defects in pipelines normally leads to interacting cluster defects that behave noticeably different from single metal loss defects. Generally, the probabilistic approaches employ explicit burst pressure limit states for corroded pipelines subjected to only internal pressure. However, a significant level of conservatism is typically associated with the probabilistic assessments of corroded pipelines using the closed-form explicit limit state functions, which presents considerable challenges in maintenance planning and risk management. Therefore, this paper proposes a pathway for developing efficient performance functions for the assessment of interacting pipeline corrosion clustering defects using probabilistic finite element-based reliability method. This seven-stage framework combines multiple uncertainty representation schemes to evaluate the probability of failure. The impact of the critical design variables such as the elastic and plastic material properties, corrosion features, and interacting cluster defect characterisations are identified to guide the burst pressure design, operations and maintenance optimisation. The employed surrogate-based active learning reliability approach yielded an efficient probability estimate at a lesser computational cost than the simulation-based reliability methods. The proposed framework reduces the conservatism and computational cost related with explicit burst pressure limit state functions for corroded pipelines and offers informed decision-making on risk and maintenance management.