Modelling of Wildfire Susceptibility in Different Climate Zones in Montenegro Using GIS-MCDA

Abstract

Montenegro has different influences on the weather and climate; in general, according to Köppen’s classification, there are two climate zones: warm temperate (C) and cold temperate (D). The aim of this study is to determine the susceptibility to wildfires in the Montenegrin coastal municipality of Budva and the northern municipality of Rožaje, which are located in different climatic conditions, using multicriteria GIS decision analysis (GIS-MCDA). Nine natural and anthropogenic criteria were used for the analysis. Open geospatial data were used as input data for all criteria. The assignment of weighting coefficients for the criteria in relation to wildfire susceptibility importance was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) procedures. The results for the AHP and F-AHP models were obtained using the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method. According to the AHP model, the very high and high category covers 80.93% of the total area in Budva and 80.65% in Rožaje. According to the F-AHP model, the very high and high category occupies 80.71% of the total area in Budva and 82.30% in Rožaje. The validation shows that the models of GIS-MCDA perform fair in both climatic zones. The proposed models, especially in the absence of geospatial data, can be a strategic and operational advantage in the development of plans and strategies for protection against wildfires.