Change of land use and prospective scenarios in the State of Tabasco (Mexico)

Abstract

he evolution of space-time dynamics in the State of Tabasco, in the Southeast of Mexico, was studied using Land Change Modeler, and scenarios with Markov Chains and Cellular Automata were projected. The results indicate that during fifteen years (2001-2016) 76,522 ha of wetlands, 18,333 ha of forests, and 73,591 ha of secondary vegetation were lost, due to the enormous growth of 148,129 ha of agricultural use, and the expansion of 13,375 ha of areas urban. In addition, through Markov Chains and Cellular Automata (2016-2030), losses of 19,152 ha of wetlands, 8,324 ha of forests, and 10,592 ha of secondary vegetation were projected. This scenario shows that the incessant growth of agriculture and urban areas will continue in the coming years. This study provides information for models of territorial ecological ordering, because it is urgent to conserve and restore the last ecosystems of southeastern Mexico.