Trends of Grassland Resilience under Climate Change and Human Activities on the Mongolian Plateau

Abstract

Grassland resilience is influenced by climate change and human activities. However, little is known about how grassland resilience has changed, driven by climate change and human activities, on the Mongolian Plateau. We calculated grassland resilience on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2021 using the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI), quantified the trends of grassland resilience using a newly proposed “critical slowing down” indicator with a machine learning algorithm, and compared the driving forces for these changes between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. The findings of this study demonstrate that heightened levels of precipitation and reduced temperature contribute to the enhanced resilience of grassland ecosystems on the Mongolian Plateau. Conversely, the presence of grazing activities exhibits a detrimental effect on such resilience. In semi-arid regions, approximately 43% of grassland areas are undergoing a discernible decline in resilience. This decline is particularly pronounced in regions characterized by heightened levels of grazing intensity. In addition, resilience declined in 54% of areas with population growth compared with 32% in areas with population decline. Inner Mongolia, with its higher intensity of human activities, has a more serious decline in ecological resilience than Mongolia, indicating that further ecological restoration measures are needed.