East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?

Abstract

The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North African path” and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the “Bangladeshi path” and will not achieve substantial fertility declines in the foreseeable future. The Bangladeshi path implies the introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family planning programs, and a rise in the legal age for marriage with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the substantial increases in agricultural labor productivity concomitant with a decline in the percentage of the population employed in agriculture.