Divorce risk and political distrust: Gendered consequences of couple instability

Abstract

Political gender differences have moved to the forefront of debates about politics and democracy. Scholars have documented that women are becoming more likely to vote, while men are more supportive of populist/radical right parties and positions, including elite distrust in mainstream politics. Past research has only been partly successful in explaining these differences, with most work concentrating on labour market-related economic explanations or value-based cultural factors. This paper shifts the attention to the family domain. Specifically, it investigates perceived risk of divorce/separation as a source of distrust in political institutions and actors. Three-wave panel data from Norway suggest this effect may not be strongly instantaneous, following short-term changes in risk. Rather, the effect develops over time and mainly among partnered fathers with persistently high levels of perceived divorce risk. This supports a ‘gendered post-divorce realities’ interpretation, under which male risks concerning post-divorce parental involvement matter politically among partnered fathers.