Risk factors predicting Severe Asthma exacerbations in adult asthmatics: A real-world clinical evidence

Abstract

Purpose: Minimizing the future risk of asthma exacerbation (AE) is one of the main goals of asthma management. We investigated prognostic factors for risk of severe AE (SAE) in a real-world clinical setting. Methods: This is an observational study evaluating subjects who were diagnosed with asthma and treated with anti-asthmatic medications from January 1995 to June 2018. Risk factors for SAE were analyzed in 2 treatment periods (during the initial 2 years and the following 3-10 years of treatment) using the big data of electronic medical records. Results: In this study, 5, 058 adult asthmatics were enrolled; 1, 335 (28.64%) experienced ≥ 1 SAE during the initial 2 years of treatment. Female sex, higher peripheral eosinophil/basophil counts, and lower levels of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1; %) were factors predicting the risk of SAEs (P < 0.001 for all). Higher serum total immunoglobulin E levels increased the risk of SAEs among the patients having ≤ 2 SAEs (P = 0.025). Patients with more frequent SAEs during the initial 2 years of treatment had significantly higher risks of SAEs during the following years of treatment (P < 0.001, for all) (patients with ≥ 4 SAEs, odds ratio [OR], 29.147; those with 3 SAEs, OR, 14.819; those with 2 SAEs, OR, 9.867; those with 1 SAE, OR, 5.116), had higher maintenance doses of systemic steroids, and showed more gradual decline in FEV1 (%) and FEV1/forced vital capacity levels maintained during the following years of treatment (P < 0.001 for all). Conclusions: Asthmatics having risk factors for SAEs (female sex, higher peripheral eosinophil/basophil counts, and lower FEV1) should be strictly monitored to prevent future risk and improve clinical outcomes.